Broken Arrow, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

790
FXUS64 KTSA 160434
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1134 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1133 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

 -Low thunderstorm chances tonight through Sunday. Limited severe
  risk Sunday afternoon and evening.

- A more active weather pattern is expected early next week
  including the risk of higher-end severe weather and heavy rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Elevated storms have decreased in coverage but winds remain gusty
near and north of where the activity has been weakening. A short-
term wind advisory will be issued to cover areas along and north of
I-44 for the gusty winds beneath the decaying showers/storms. This
activity has been occurring ahead of a shortwave trough that shows
up on WV imagery to our west. An MCS is weakening as it progresses
east near the Red River and vicinity, but is in the process of
leaving an MCV behind. This MCV is expected to track across SE OK
and NW AR during the morning and midday hours on Saturday, in tandem
with the broader shortwave trough. Given the steep lapse rates aloft
as the previous shift mentioned, this forcing will result in other
round of elevated/high-based showers and isolated storms moving east
across the region tonight into Saturday. Once this wave/MCV passes
Saturday afternoon, there will be a lull in activity. Chances of
storm development on the dryline out west are minimal Saturday
afternoon.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Aside from a low chance of showers from the ArkLaTex up into NW AR
in the deep-layer moist plume, the focus on Sunday will continue to
be to the west of the forecast area on the dryline. Isolated storm
development is possible, with any storms that survive into eastern
OK carrying a higher-end severe risk.

A strong upper trough is expected to emerge into the central Plains
Monday. By Monday afternoon, a sharp dryline will lie over western
OK extending north to a triple point over KS where it intersects a
southeastward-surging cold front. There will be a more pronounced
increase in low level moisture east of the dryline with dewpoints
climbing into the 70s. There is some disagreement on how capped the
warm sector will be, with the EC showing some capping and the GFS
showing an uncapped airmass. This could affect warm sector quality.
With at least a glancing influence from the ejecting shortwave
trough, storms are expected to develop off the dryline and will
carry the highest severe threat potential for this forecast into
eastern OK Monday afternoon and evening.

The models today continue with a more aggressive southward push to
the cold front. Current progs have the front sliding south across
the forecast area Monday night into Tuesday. The front would focus
storms and some severe threat as well as it moves through. Depending
on the speed of the front, there could be some severe weather and
locally heavy rainfall potential Tuesday afternoon and evening over
SE OK and NW AR. While some chance for showers and storms will
persist over the region through Thursday in advance of a shortwave
trough, the greater severe weather potential will shift south of the
region with the front. Rain/storm chances will persist through the
end of next week as moisture returns, but we lose the flow aloft,
thus severe potential will be limited.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Isolated to scattered showers and sprinkles (with occasional
lightning) continue to stream across eastern OK and northwest AR
early this evening. These widespread spotty and brief showers
will persist overnight and into tomorrow morning. Hi-res model
data show radar echos intensifying some around midnight and
continuing through daybreak. Included some PROB30 groups for low
thunder chances at KMLC, KXNA, KROG, KFYV, and KFSM when the best
chances of thunder will occur, though timing confidence is fairly
low. Regardless, aviation impacts should be low to none through
the period. Mid and high level clouds will continue to prevail
through the forecast period. A robust LLJ will create LLWS for
most TAF sites. Overall, VFR is expected to prevail through the
period.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  88  71  87 /  30  20   0   0
FSM   71  88  69  87 /  30  10   0  20
MLC   72  87  70  86 /  20  10   0  10
BVO   70  88  71  86 /  30  20   0  10
FYV   72  84  67  83 /  30  20   0   0
BYV   72  86  67  86 /  30  20   0  10
MKO   72  86  70  84 /  20  20   0   0
MIO   71  86  69  84 /  40  30   0   0
F10   71  87  71  86 /  20  20   0   0
HHW   70  87  70  87 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...67