Broken Arrow, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

428
FXUS64 KTSA 242339
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
639 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 112 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

 - Near to slightly below normal temperatures continue Friday for
   most locations.

 - Periods of low rain and thunder chances continue into Friday
   evening, slight chances Friday night into Saturday.

 - Another stretch of dangerous heat this weekend into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 112 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Mid level trof axis continued to slowly move east-southeast across
central Oklahoma and eastern Kansas early this afternoon. Along
this axis, light to locally moderate rain showers were moving into
northeast Oklahoma. Marginal instability along and ahead of the
trof due to ongoing cloud cover has limited overall lightning
potential. Also early this afternoon, with the low level moisture
return into the region, isolated showers had develop over far
southeast Oklahoma.

Through this evening, the mid level shortwave is expected to
continue on its current track with the trof axis exiting northwest
Arkansas this evening. In response, scattered rain showers along
with slight to low end chances of embedded thunder remain forecast
across northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas. Isolated light
rain showers also are forecast into early evening ahead of the
shortwave. Severe weather is not expected with this activity,
though a non-zero potential for a storm creating gusty winds can
not be ruled out through late afternoon. Once the trof axis can
get east of the CWA, will carry just a slight chance of a
shower/storm overnight for mainly parts of northwest Arkansas.

Cloud cover holding over the CWA this afternoon has kept
temperatures in check. Afternoon high temperatures in the 80s to
around 90 degrees are forecast. The higher temperatures look to
be in parts of southeast Oklahoma, between the two areas of rain
showers. A brief period of heat index near 100 degrees could
develop this afternoon over these locations. Temperatures tonight
should remain in the mid 70 to near 80 degrees for most of the
CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 112 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

A slight chance of showers/storms exists into Saturday for parts
of far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas on the eastern
periphery of an expanding ridge of high pressure into the region.
The combination of moisture return today and the building high
pressure over the southern Plains Saturday will create hot and
humid conditions expanding over the CWA Saturday afternoon. High
temperatures in the 90s to near 100 degrees are forecast, along
with heat index values of 100 to 115 degrees. Thus, an Extreme
Heat Warning has been issued for most of northeast Oklahoma, and
a Heat Advisory issued for the rest of eastern Oklahoma and also
much of northwest Arkansas. At this time, have left
Washington/Madison counties out of the advisory, though there
could be a brief window where heat index values near 105 degrees
could develop.

High pressure ridge becomes the dominate feature over the region
for the weekend and into the first half of next week. Dangerous
heat and humidity remain common through this period as the eastern
periphery of the low level thermal ridge expands into eastern
Oklahoma. These conditions are anticipated through Tuesday before
the ridge tries to retreat westward. This would put the CWA on the
eastern periphery of the ridge, and allow for a wave and
associated weak frontal boundary to sag into the region during the
second half of next week. Depending on where the boundary sets up,
parts of the CWA could see a slight break in the heat/humidity,
while other parts could see isolated diurnal storm development
each day. Details still remain uncertain but this is something to
watch, while the CWA goes through high temperatures in the upper
90s to near 104 degrees Sunday - Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

High based showers continue to stream southeastward across
eastern OK and western AR. These light showers may impact KMLC,
KXNA, KROG, and KFYV over the next few hours, but lightning
appears unlikely at this time. Included a chance of MVFR cigs
with showers at the AR terminals through about 04Z before
precipitation chances end. Otherwise, VFR is expected to prevail
through the next 24 hours at all aerodromes with SCT and BKN
mid/high level clouds through the period.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  99  80 102 /  10  10   0   0
FSM   78  98  79 102 /  20  10  10  10
MLC   79  98  79 101 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   75  98  77 102 /  10  10   0   0
FYV   75  94  76  98 /  30  10  10  10
BYV   74  94  76  98 /  30  20  10  10
MKO   78  97  77  99 /  10  10   0   0
MIO   75  96  77  98 /  20  10   0   0
F10   77  97  77 100 /  10  10   0   0
HHW   78  96  76  99 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ049-053-063-
     068-069-073>075-172-176-272-276-376.

     Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for
     OKZ055>062-064>067-070-071-154-254-354.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ001-002-129-
     219-220-229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...67